Category Archives: NATURAL HAZARDS

Advisory No.4 : Tropical Cyclone – 04A (NILOFAR) in Arabian Sea

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Nilofar) in Arabian Sea has intensified into a Very Severe Tropical Cyclone and is now located at Lat. 15.8°N and Long. 61.8°E, about 1120 km in southwest of Karachi and 1030 Km south of Gawadar. The Cyclone would continue to move in northwest direction today with a speed of 06 Km/hour and is expected to re-curve northeastwards (towards adjoining coastal areas of Lower Sindh and Indian Gujrat) on Wednesday. At present the estimated central pressure of Cyclone is 990 hpa and the average sustained wind speed around is 90-100 gusting up to 110 Knots.

Under the influence of this Cyclone, widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy/very heavy falls accompanied by strong gusty winds are expected in Lower Sindh including Karachi and Coastal Areas of Balochistan during Wednesday (night) to Friday.

Weather Advisory 3(last): Tropical Cyclone 02A (NANAUK) in Arabian Sea

The Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) has weakened into a well marked Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the central Arabian Sea during last 24 hours. This well marked LPA has moved northeastwards with a gradual decreasing trend during last 06 hours and now located at Lat. 21.2°N and Long. 64.0 about 530 kms in southwest of Karachi. There is high probability of its dissipation over the water of north Arabian Sea in next 2-3 days. Under the influence of this well marked LPA some isolated rain/thundershowers are expected in lower Sindh during next 2-3 days. The fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan may resume their activities from today.

Weather Advisory 2: Tropical Cyclone 02A (NANAUK) in Arabian Sea

Yesterday’s Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) remained almost stationary in last six hours over a location at Lat. 20.5°N and Long. 63.5°E about 620 kms southwest of Karachi.   The TC 02A is now likely to move in north-easterly direction during next 24 hours with maximum sustained wind speed of 30-40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The TC is expected to weaken further in next 24 hours and there is high probability of its dissipation over the water of north Arabian Sea in next couple of days. None of the area of Pakistan is under threat however some isolated rain/thundershowers expected in lower Sindh in next couple of days. The sea conditions along Pakistan coast are already rough to very rough. Therefore the fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan are advised not to venture in open sea from Friday evening to Sunday night.

Preliminary Outlook for Monsoon 2014

Pakistan Summer Monsoon Season spans over July to September. As a routine practice, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues the Monsoon Outlook around mid June incorporating the dynamics of local, regional and global meteorological parameters up to the end of May each year. However, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) designated by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has already issued Consensus Statement. Outlook made by this forum and preliminary outlook of PMD are presented below: South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) The outlook suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia as a whole. Below normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, Central and Southern parts of the South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southern most part of the region. It is noteworthy that no part of the South Asia is likely to receive above normal rainfall. Preliminary Monsoon Outlook by PMD The emerging climatic features linked to El-Nino development have fairly large potential to suppress Pakistan Summer Monsoon 2014. According to the preliminary estimates of PMD, the amount of rainfall from July to September may be moderately below normal in Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab while nearly normal rainfall is expected in North Punjab, KP, GB and Kashmir.

Weather Advisory- Monsoon 2012

Met Office predicted more monsoon rains over upper parts of the country during coming 4-5 days. Met Office informed that fresh monsoon currents have started to penetrate in Kashmir and adjoining areas of Punjab, which are likely to grip most of the upper parts of country during the weekend. A westerly wave is expected to approach northern parts of Pakistan on Saturday/Sunday.